Will Putin attack Poland ?

Since the attack on Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been threatening Poland. Since 2022, Poland has been on high alert due to the potential threat from Russia. Many have speculated that an attack on Poland by Russia could mark the beginning of World War III. Others argue that Western Europe doesn’t seem to be overly concerned about Eastern Europe; however, the truth is that the main conflict between Russia and Western Europe revolves around Eastern Europe. There are many reasons for this: many of today’s Eastern European countries were once part of the Soviet Union, and after the Soviet Union collapsed, many of them gained independence. But Russia has not fully relinquished its influence over them, which is one of the reasons for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Poland was not a part of the Soviet Union; it was an independent country, though it was a Soviet ally. Poland joined NATO in 1999. In the same year, Putin became the acting President or Prime Minister, and in 2000, he was elected as President for the first time. He has been in power for 25 years, serving in his fifth term as President of Russia. No one has ruled Russia for such a long time since the Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin. Putin, who was born in 1952, is currently 73 years old. If everything goes as planned, he is expected to stay in power until 2036, having solidified his control over the country, with little opposition within Russia.

Since coming to power, Putin’s dream has been to restore Russia to its former glory, bringing it back to the position it held during the Soviet era when the world was divided into two power blocs: one led by the United States and the other by the Soviet Union. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia was no longer viewed as a major global power. Over the past 25 years, Putin has restored Russia to a significant degree, bringing it back to the global stage. After the Soviet Union collapsed, the United States enjoyed unilateral dominance worldwide, but Putin's rise has created a new balance of power.

However, Poland has become a thorn in Putin’s side. Because, even if it cannot hold Ukraine's hand, NATO is now trying to sway Russia by holding Poland's hand. Most of the refugees from Ukraine have sought shelter in Poland. Putin has expressed frustration that, through Poland, the West has surrounded Russia. He has also voiced concerns about the security of his own country. While Western countries have denied these accusations, they remain a sensitive issue for Putin.

For Poland, the situation is equally uncomfortable. It’s not just about discomfort or sensitivity, but rather a lack of security. This absence of security could lead to a major war in Eastern Europe at any moment. Even though Putin has, under pressure from Trump, made some temporary promises to cease fighting in Ukraine, it remains to be seen whether these promises will be fulfilled, especially considering NATO’s objections. It seems unlikely that permanent peace will return to Eastern Europe anytime soon.

Hence, Poland’s concerns are understandable. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has expressed fears that Putin might launch a military operation against Poland. As a result, he has announced plans to provide mandatory military training to all adult and capable men in Poland. Tusk has stated that Russia has a military force of over 1.3 million soldiers, and Poland aims to build a force of at least 500,000, including regular and reserve forces, to counter this. He further commented, "By the end of this year, we want to create a model in which every adult male in Poland is prepared for war, and our reserve forces are capable of facing any potential threat."

Moreover, Tusk has called for nuclear-capable weapons for Poland. He now seeks further support from Western Europe. Whether Putin will attack Poland is still uncertain. While the invasion of Ukraine was relatively easier for Putin, attacking Poland would not be so simple. In such a case, NATO would be forced to engage in direct warfare, making the war inevitably larger and potentially leading to World War III.