Winter may become negligible by the end of this century: Research report

Bangladesh's climate could undergo major changes in the next few decades if the world fails to control the effects of greenhouse gases, a recently published research report has said.

According to experts, the country's average temperature could increase by at least 1 to 2 degrees Celsius between 2041 and 2070, and this increase could be even higher by 1.5 to 4.5 degrees by the end of the century.

At an event organized in Dhaka, the Bangladesh Meteorological Department and the Norwegian Meteorological Institute jointly released the 'Bangladesh Future Climate Report 2025'. The report, which analyzes five possible climate scenarios, provides detailed forecasts of future temperature, rainfall and sea level.

The study found that heat waves may occur more frequently during the March to May period before the monsoon. The possibility of heat waves occurring up to 20 days before the monsoon in the western part of the country by 2070 has been indicated, which is significantly more than the current period. There are indications that heat waves will increase during the monsoon as well.

The situation in the capital Dhaka could be even more difficult. According to the report, city dwellers could face at least two severe heat waves a year. One before the monsoon, the other after the monsoon. In the worst-case scenario, daytime temperatures could feel up to 4.5 degrees higher.

As temperatures rise, winter will also move away from the southern regions. It is predicted that the winter season may be almost negligible by the end of the century. The report mentions that some areas of the northeastern region may experience mild cold waves for only one or two days in December-January.

The monsoon season accounts for a large part of the total rainfall in Bangladesh. The new forecast says that monsoon rainfall may increase further in the future. By 2070, monsoon rainfall may increase by an average of 118 mm, and by the end of the century, this increase may reach 255 mm. It has been warned that excessive rainfall in the northeastern region will further increase the risk of floods and landslides.

One of the most important parts of the study was sea level rise. The rate of rise along the coast of Bangladesh may be higher than the global average—up to 5.8 mm per year. This threatens to permanently submerge about 18% of the coast by the end of the century. If the situation worsens, about a quarter of the Sundarbans could be submerged. This has raised the possibility of permanently displacing one million people by 2050.

The biggest blow from climate change could be to the agriculture sector. Temperature and salinity could increase, reducing crop production. Livestock diseases could increase and there is a risk of freshwater sources shrinking. Dengue, malaria, cholera and other water-borne diseases could increase in public health. As it is difficult to work outside in excessive heat, the pressure on working people will also increase.

While presenting the report, Bazlur Rashid said that climate change will not stop overnight, so adaptation plans must be long-term. He said that coastal protection, construction of dams and shelters, and modernization of early warning systems should be prioritized in these areas.

Norwegian Ambassador to Bangladesh, HE Mr. Håkon Arald Gulbrandsen said: "Climate change is no longer an environmental crisis, but is affecting everything from agriculture to energy. Therefore, working together is the only way forward."

The Meteorological Department and the Norwegian Meteorological Agency have been jointly researching climate change since 2011. The new report is their third full analysis.