Economics
Contractionary monetary policy alone can’t solve inflation woes
The Bangladesh Bank announced the second monetary policy of the current fiscal year on February 10, 2025. This was the second monetary policy for the fiscal year 2024-25 and the first policy under the interim government. There was considerable anticipation regarding the announced policy, and many experts had expected it to be contractionary in nature. Indeed, the policy can be described as contractionary in terms of its characteristics, as it focuses more on controlling the existing high inflation rather than achieving high growth.
No more delays in the name of reforms—Control inflation
The leaders of the top four business organizations in the country have expressed their concerns regarding the government's initiative to increase gas prices in a joint letter addressed to the Energy Adviser. They have warned that raising gas prices at this moment will severely impact industries, leading to a sharp rise in production costs. As a result, Bangladeshi products may lose their competitive edge in the international market.
Private sector investment key to sustainable development
Every nation strives to achieve rapid and sustainable development. The core responsibility of any government is to ensure the optimal use of limited resources to maximize public welfare and elevate the country to the peak of development. A government that fulfills this responsibility effectively and brings development to all sectors of society is considered a government committed to public welfare. Many people believe that simply achieving economic development will fulfill the primary goal of development, but this belief is not entirely accurate. Development is a comprehensive concept, not limited to just economic progress. While economic development is an important indicator, it is not the sole measure of overall development. In other words, without achieving positive progress in other development indicators alongside economic growth, it cannot be considered balanced development. Economic growth is crucial, but it is not the only criterion for developmen
State action needed to harness demographic dividend
In the 1980s, the then military dictator General HM Ershad described uncontrolled population growth as the "number one national problem." Although his statement created a stir at the time, it was a completely misleading comment. Population growth, whether planned or unplanned, can never be the number one national problem for a country. Population is an irreplaceable resource. The progress of the world cannot be imagined without it. If population is systematically trained and transformed into a skilled and productive workforce, it becomes the nation's greatest asset. However, if population growth is unmanaged, it becomes a burden for the country. The responsibility of turning the population into human capital lies solely with the state. The state cannot escape the blame for its failure to do so.
Close all loopholes for tax evaders despite their ability to pay
At the current stage of our country's economy, achieving revenue targets necessitates the introduction of a "push factor." No matter the cost, there must be a strong effort to elevate revenue collection to the desired level. A significant number of people who are eligible to pay taxes have yet to be included in the tax network. On the other hand, efforts are being made to bring into the tax and customs framework sectors that should be taxed but currently aren't. In both cases, there is a need to move forward with a refined and reformed plan to create or implement a taxpayer-friendly and automated incentive-based system. In other words, for those who are capable of paying taxes but aren't, we must encourage them while simultaneously closing all loopholes that allow tax evasion. Effective measures must be taken to remove any obstacles or complexities that exist in the tax payment and collection processes.
Second half-yearly monetary policy faces challenges
Five months have passed since the interim government took office, but there has been little sign of success in the economic sphere during this period. The interim government has been focusing more on addressing political crises rather than economic issues. The formulation of the new monetary policy is nearing completion. The Bangladesh Bank has started discussions on the proposed monetary policy with stakeholders. If everything goes as planned, this policy will be approved in the Bangladesh Bank board meeting on January 22, and then it will be published. This will be the second monetary policy of the current fiscal year and the first of the interim government. This will also be the first monetary policy under the new governor of Bangladesh Bank, Dr. Ahsan H Monsur. Since taking office, the new governor has taken several practical steps, including initiatives to make the foreign exchange rate and bank lending interest rates market-based. However, these steps should have been taken earlier. The previous governor failed to take effective actions in these areas, which led to a sluggish and downward-moving economy. Among all the recent monetary policies issued by Bangladesh Bank, none has been as challenging as the proposed policy.
Excessive foreign debt erodes financial independence
In the 1970s, an American development economist visited Bangladesh. At one point, he gave a speech to the faculty members of Dhaka University. The economics department’s professors were notably present at this event. During his address, the American economist presented his views on why Bangladesh’s economic development was not progressing to the desired level. The professors in attendance listened intently to his words. At that moment, a young economics professor from Dhaka University stood up and said to the American economist, "The reason we are unable to achieve the desired level of development is because you are intervening in our economy in various ways." After a brief pause, the American economist replied to the young professor, saying, "If 80 percent of the funds for your country's development activities come from us, whose economy is it? If you were able to finance your development from domestic sources, we would not need to offer any advice." Hearing this, the young professor remained silent and sat down.
Economic tensions to intensify worldwide
It is natural for people to be curious about what may happen in the world economy and trade in the coming year. Particularly, with Donald Trump being re-elected as the President of the United States, there is speculation about whether the situation will worsen. The question being raised is whether Trump will launch a full-scale trade war. According to a report by the Financial Times, there is a possibility of a full-scale trade war, but it is not guaranteed. The FT refers to a full-scale trade war as a scenario where, by the end of the year, the United States will impose at least a 10 per cent tariff on all imported goods. Trump has threatened to impose up to a 25 per cent tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico, excluding China. These two countries account for 30 per cent of US imports. They, too, will continue to exert pressure on Trump in various ways. However, FT suggests that due to the additional tariffs, Trump is likely to continue the tariff battle. Hence, they do not believe that these tariffs will be withdrawn by the end of the year.
'Six Kas' of reform and the looming economic crisis
What you understand by reform depends on who you are, what your profession is, what your political beliefs and views are, which party you support, and above all, how you think about the country.
Professor Anisur Rahman was my teacher and guide
Any death is painful, but when it is the death of someone like Professor Anisur Rahman, it becomes incredibly hard to bear. Professor Anisur Rahman was my direct teacher. He had been suffering from various age-related complications for a long time. While he was ill, Professor Anisur Rahman was admitted to the United Hospital in the capital, where he passed away on January 5. Professor Anisur Rahman was born in 1933 in Brahmanbaria, although his ancestral home was in Kendua, Netrokona. He was one of the key organizers of the Bangladesh Liberation War. In the 1960s, he assisted in the formulation of the Six-Point Movement led by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. After independence, he became one of the members of the first Planning Commission of Bangladesh formed under the leadership of Sheikh Mujib. His death is an irreparable loss to the nation. Every person must taste death, but it is very difficult to accept the passing of someone like Professor Anisur Rahman.
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