Even if rice production increases, why wouldn't the price decrease?

Rice is the primary staple food for Bengalis. The Bengali proverb mache-bhate Bangali is still true in the Bengali context. Especially for poor people, there is no alternative to eating rice three times a day. That's why the main concern for poor people is rice. If the price of rice increases, cries of distress start echoing from all directions—what will they eat to survive? Research has shown that poor people spend 29-32 percent of their income to buy rice. This means that nearly one-third of their income goes into buying rice alone. As a result, in order to sustain themselves, they have to cut down on other expenses mercilessly.

Meanwhile, the price of rice increased during Ramadan. According to market rates published in the media around mid-March, coarse rice (Swarna and China IRRI) was priced at around 52-53 taka per kilogram, while medium-quality rice (Paijam and BR) was priced at 57-58 taka per kilogram. On the other hand, fine rice like Miniket and those from places like Nazirshail were being sold at 64-80 taka per kilogram. Meanwhile, the daily income of countless laborers is even less than 50 taka. This means that for a poor family to survive on a daily basis, the amount they need to spend on food is easily estimated.

There's good news amidst this. Rice production in the country is increasing. According to a report published in the media yesterday (April 21), citing a food aid report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), it has been stated that the cultivated area for rice cultivation in Bangladesh during this Boro season has increased by 50 thousand hectares, reaching a total of 49 lakh hectares. Moreover, rice production could increase from 5 lakh tons to 2 crore 5 lakh tons.

Despite the increase in rice production, there is no hope of a decrease in prices. Three reasons are being brought forward as causes for the significant rate of price reduction failure:
1. Increased production costs for rice cultivation.
2. Higher rice prices in the global market and the ban on rice exports from India, which is a major source of support for Bangladesh.
3. The crisis of the US dollar in Bangladesh and the appreciation of the dollar, which has significantly increased the cost of rice imports.

The USDA report also mentions that there is no possibility of rice prices decreasing from the current level. Sources from the Ministry of Food and Ministry of Agriculture indicate that if rice prices decrease, farmers' interest in production will decline, which the government also does not desire. Therefore, they prefer rice prices to remain close to the current status quo.

We must acknowledge the logical statistics. However, it's challenging to predict the situation for people with low incomes. Unlike other years, this time the advance flood hasn't washed away the rice in the Haor region. The highest amount of rice is produced during the Boro season in the country. This time, the Boro season hasn't faced any major disasters. Harvesting of rice has already begun in the Haor region. Rice is also ripening in the northern and southern regions. Harvesting is underway in some areas. Even in such a bountiful season, if the price of rice doesn't decrease, it would indeed be unfortunate.

While the reasons cited for the increase in rice prices, such as rising production costs, rice price hikes in the global market, reduced rice imports from India, and the appreciation of the dollar, may indeed be true, we must also consider these aspects more attentively. Bangladesh must strive for self-sufficiency in rice production regardless of these challenges. Agricultural land must be expanded to increase rice production. We need to adopt modern agricultural practices. Otherwise, this country with a large population will face a food crisis. If a significant portion of the low-income population exhausts their income on purchasing rice, it will have a devastating impact on their quality of life. Considering the overall perspective, it's essential for the relevant authorities to take necessary measures to reduce the price of rice.