Post-flood agricultural rehabilitation should be the top priority

The southeastern, central, and northeastern regions of Bangladesh have been devastated by the most severe flood in recent memory. This sudden flood has already inundated 11 districts, with its effects also felt in the surrounding areas. Approximately 5.7 million people have been directly affected, with around 1 million trapped by the water. So far, 23 people have lost their lives. Many others are suffering from extreme hunger and disease. Those who managed took shelter in relatively high places, markets, schools, embankments, major roads or railway stations. For those who couldn’t escape, their tears have merged with the floodwaters, and their homes have been submerged. Rice fields are under water, and ponds have become deep pools. Fish, ducks, chickens, and livestock have all been washed away. They are suffering from a shortage of food, drinking water, medicine, and clothing, spending sleepless nights in the flood-affected areas. Some people look up to the sky, calling out to their Creator and Sustainer.

Floods in Bangladesh typically occur during the months of Asharh and Shravan, with excessive rainfall being the main cause. However, this year, the flood has arrived late, in the month of Bhadra. It is unusual to experience flooding at the beginning of autumn, after the usual monsoon season. Despite this, the people of Bangladesh have become quite accustomed to frequent floods and are adept at adapting to them. In the 19th century alone, the country experienced catastrophic floods a total of six times. Between the 20th and 21st centuries, there have been 18 instances of severe flooding. Since the independence of Bangladesh, we have witnessed major floods in 1974, 1984, 1988, 1998, 2007, and 2016. Each time, after the floods, the people of Bangladesh have managed to recover and the economy has progressed. The same resilience and recovery are expected to continue even after the 2024 flood.

Although the severity of the flood in the affected areas this time is greater, its extent is not as widespread. Approximately 20% of the country is inundated, while other areas are less affected. However, in the regions where the water levels have risen, ordinary people have been plunged into deep crisis. Their belongings have been swept away, leaving them in indescribable suffering and hardship. The affected districts include Feni, Comilla, Brahmanbaria, Chattogram, Lakshmipur, Cox's Bazar, Khagrachari, Noakhali, Moulvibazar, Habiganj, and Sylhet. In these areas, river embankments have collapsed, causing damage to homes. Farmlands are submerged, bridges and culverts have been destroyed, severing communication, and business activities have come to a halt. Agriculture has been the most severely impacted sector due to the flood. Small-scale factories and cottage industries outside the agricultural sector have also come to a halt. In many areas, mobile networks and the internet are unavailable, and entire villages are plunged into darkness due to power outages. The extensive damage to agriculture caused by the flood is highly visible. In some regions, paddy fields of ripe Aus rice have been submerged. Seedbeds for Aman rice and newly planted Aman paddy fields are all under water. Various vegetables, such as sweet pumpkin, bottle gourd, ridge gourd, bitter gourd, snake gourd, eggplant, and spices like turmeric and chili, have been submerged as well.

Oilseed crops such as peanuts, sesame, and sunflower have been completely submerged. Locally produced fruits like mangoes, jackfruits, lemons, pineapples, bananas, papayas, sapodillas, and dragon fruits have all been destroyed. Additionally, fish farms have been ruined, with fish from ponds having escaped. Poultry reared at home has perished, and very few cattle have survived. The economic loss for rural communities is substantial. It is crucial to determine the actual statistics and nature of the damage. Furthermore, local markets are experiencing shortages of essential goods. The supply of all products is limited, and prices are high. Even in this time of distress, some unscrupulous traders are profiteering. Their syndicates are still active, with prices for local dry foods like chipped rice and other items being more than double. Even transportation by boat to relief centers requires payment that is two to three times the usual rate. The flood-affected people are enduring immense hardship. Some people argue in favor of the flood, claiming that it deposits a layer of silt on the land, which enhances soil fertility and leads to better crop yields. Therefore, they believe the crops will be more fruitful after the flood. However, distinguishing between the effects of monsoon rains and floods can be confusing. While monsoon rains come every year, floods are less predictable.

During normal monsoon seasons, relatively low-lying lands get submerged, which allows silt to accumulate. However, floods occur sporadically, typically once every few years. Often, the primary cause is the upstream runoff, which brings muddy water along with silt. This results in significant hardship for the people and leads to economic damage that can exceed limits. In such cases, rehabilitation becomes crucial, though it is both challenging and costly. The direct and indirect impacts of floods depend on their duration. For example, the 1988 flood lasted from August to September, and the 1998 flood persisted for nearly two months. The water level has begun to recede in a relatively short period, but the rate is very slow. The primary reasons for this slow decline are obstructions in the path of the floodwater to the sea, sedimentation, and reduced river navigability. Prompt resolution of these issues is crucial. Post-flood agricultural rehabilitation should be our top priority. Once the floodwaters recede, farmers in the affected areas quickly resume work on their fields with renewed vigor, as their food security depends on it. They invest more in their crops, leading to increased production. With government support, farmers' enthusiasm for cultivation grows. Higher production results in surplus marketable goods, leading to a reduction in commodity prices, which benefits consumers.

This year's flood has damaged the Aman rice crop. However, there is still an opportunity to grow short-duration varieties like BRRI dhan 22, BRRI dhan 23, and BRRI dhan 46. As the second week of Bhadra is passing, if the water recedes quickly, delayed Aman seedlings can be planted by the end of Bhadra. Additionally, if the floodwaters last less than two weeks, earlier planted flood-tolerant varieties such as BRRI dhan 51, BRRI dhan 52, BRRI dhan 79, and Binadhan 11 and 12 will survive. The damage to vegetables must be compensated by cultivating early Rabi crops. Once the water recedes, it will be possible to rapidly grow short-duration vegetables such as spinach and amaranth. Oilseeds and pulse crops like mung beans and mustard can also be cultivated on the land without additional sowing. The most critical crop to focus on is the upcoming Boro rice, which accounts for about 54% of the total rice production. Therefore, production planning for Boro rice needs to start immediately. A major challenge in this regard is the limited supply of chemical fertilizers. The current stock of fertilizers is only sufficient to last until September at most. To cultivate Rabi crops and Boro rice, an additional 4 to 4.5 million metric tons of fertilizer must be procured. This requires easing the process of opening letters of credit (LCs) for imports and ensuring the full operation of the five domestic fertilizer factories. Over the past two years, the prices of various chemical fertilizers have been increased twice due to rising international market prices. With a recent decrease in international fertilizer prices, there is now a need to reduce fertilizer prices in the domestic market as well.

It is being proposed to provide agricultural loans with favorable terms to help farmers cover their cultivation costs and investments, which is a positive step. In this regard, it might be worth considering providing interest-free loans through PKSF and various NGOs. Currently, the primary issue for flood-affected people is a lack of cash, which is essential for any kind of transaction. To address this urgent need, direct financial assistance should be provided. In our country, various relief committees typically provide dry food, water, and clothing to flood victims but rarely offer cash assistance. The government should arrange for some form of cash assistance in this situation. We often talk about agricultural insurance as a measure to cope with floods and other natural disasters. It is now essential to take effective steps to implement such measures.

After a flood, the prices of essential goods typically rise, exacerbating the hardship for ordinary consumers. Bangladesh is currently experiencing a period of high inflation, with the general inflation rate at 11.66% in July and food inflation at 14.10%. This represents the highest inflation in the past decade, and the impact may worsen due to the flood. However, measures have already been taken in our monetary and fiscal policies to curb inflation. Positive results are expected in the near future, though the success of these measures largely depends on increased production in the agricultural and industrial sectors. The focus should be on increasing the supply of goods in the market. In this regard, vigilance against extortion and the schemes of unscrupulous traders is essential. It is crucial to quickly restore law and order and ensure social stability.

To alleviate the indescribable suffering caused by frequent floods in Bangladesh, water diplomacy must be prioritized. We seek a permanent solution to this problem through agreements with neighboring countries. It is not possible to achieve this through hostility. Maintaining good relations and camaraderie with India can facilitate a fair share of water distribution from various rivers and provide a pathway to protect Bangladesh from the upstream water flow during the monsoon. Continuous efforts are needed to achieve this. We need to find ways to receive advance warnings about floods from India. The most crucial requirement is to enhance our institutional capacity for flood forecasting and warning. This includes training specialists in the field, increasing investment in related research, and ensuring that the alerts and messages about floods and storms are communicated in a way that is easily understandable to the general public.

Due to global warming, the world’s temperature has already increased by 1.5 degrees Celsius. We have recently felt the intense heat from this rise. Additionally, the effects of El Niño and La Niña are causing floods at one end of the Pacific Ocean while severe droughts are affecting crops at the other end. This is increasing the risk of global disasters. The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) has forecasted that the frequency of natural disasters will increase by 40% by 2030. This will have a particularly harmful impact on the Asia-Pacific region. In 2015, the International Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction was held in Sendai, Japan. The conference established goals for disaster risk reduction, focusing on sustainable management and ensuring necessary investments. However, at the Asia-Pacific Ministerial Conference held in Manila, Philippines, on August 22, 2024, there was concern that some countries are deviating from the Sendai Framework's goals. We should exercise caution in this regard and feel a sense of urgency to strengthen our disaster management and risk reduction activities.

Bangladesh is a disaster-prone country, frequently experiencing major calamities such as floods, droughts, cyclones, storm surges, riverbank erosion, and landslides. These disasters result in widespread displacement, significant loss of life, and extensive economic damage. It is crucial to update and maintain accurate statistics, develop and implement disaster risk reduction and adaptation plans, and create budgets for these efforts, including securing international support for financing. Achieving these goals requires coordinated efforts from both government and non-governmental organizations.

Dr. Jahangir Alam: Director of Dhaka School of Economics and former Vice-Chancellor of University of Global Village.