Macroeconomic targets in FY26-27 budget will be major challenge: CPD

The successful achievement of macroeconomic targets set in the proposed 2026-27 national budget will be a major challenge for the government, according to the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), a leading private research organisation.

CPD Executive Director Dr. Fahmida Khatun made the observation at a review session titled “National Budget 2026-27: CPD’s Review” held at Hotel Lakeshore in the capital's Gulshan on Friday (June 12).

Dr. Khatun said nearly all key macroeconomic indicators remain under pressure, with the overall economic environment still “not comfortable”.

She noted that although foreign exchange reserves have shown some improvement, other indicators have not seen expected progress. Export earnings and remittance inflows have grown, but remain insufficient to fully meet targets.

CPD pointed out that GDP growth is projected at 6.5 percent for the next fiscal year, while estimates for the current year stand at around 5 percent (or just above 4 percent according to BBS data).

Private investment has declined from 23–24 percent previously to around 21.3 percent, despite an increase in public investment, the think tank said.

On inflation, CPD noted that the current rate remains above 9.4 percent, while the target for the next fiscal year has been set at 7.5 percent. Achieving this target will be difficult, CPD warned, citing persistent supply-side constraints in food and energy, as well as global price pressures. The organisation stressed the need for tighter monetary policy and stronger market monitoring.

For FY27, export growth is projected at 7.9 percent and remittance growth at 15 percent, while reserves are targeted to rise to $41 billion—described by CPD as “ambitious”.

The think tank also flagged concerns over currency depreciation, noting projections of the exchange rate reaching Tk 127 per US dollar.

CPD further said public debt stands at 38.6 percent of GDP, which remains within IMF’s sustainable threshold, but the debt trajectory is moving from “low” to “moderate” risk.

Budget financing reliance on foreign loans and grants has increased significantly, rising to 47.7 percent from 31.5 percent in the previous year, CPD added.

While acknowledging that increased development spending may support employment and income growth, CPD stressed that achieving budget targets will depend heavily on implementation efficiency and transparency.

Senior fellow Prof. Dr. Mustafizur Rahman and Senior Research Associate Helen Masiyat Priyoti, among others, also attended the event.