Presidential election: Four leaders in the frame, all eyes on Tarique Rahman's decision

With the presidential election approaching, political circles in the country are abuzz with speculation. The ruling BNP is yet to finalise its candidate, with discussions within the party's policy-making circles centring around four senior leaders. Meanwhile, in contrast to the likelihood of a BNP-only contest, the Jamaat-e-Islami-led 11-party alliance has already announced Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Chairman Colonel (retd.) Oli Ahmed Bir Bikram as its candidate.

This raises the possibility of multiple candidates for the presidency after a long time. Whether there will actually be a contest depends on the filing of nomination papers, scrutiny and withdrawal of candidature. But politically, the election has already taken on a new dimension.

According to the schedule announced by the Election Commission, the presidential election will be held on August 20. August 13 is the last day for filing nominations, August 16 is the date for scrutiny, and August 18 is the deadline for withdrawal. If there are multiple candidates, voting will take place at the Jatiya Sangsad Bhaban on August 20.

BNP leaders in the frame
Among the likely BNP candidates for the presidency, the most discussed names are: party Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, along with National Standing Committee members Dr Khondokar Mosharraf Hossain and Dr Abdul Moeen Khan, and Speaker of Parliament and Acting President Major (retd.) Hafiz Uddin Ahmed Bir Bikram.

Each of the four has long political experience, loyalty to the party and experience in state-level responsibilities. However, who will ultimately receive the nomination remains the biggest question in BNP politics.

The party's National Standing Committee has already delegated the authority to finalise the presidential candidate to BNP Chairman and Prime Minister Tarique Rahman. All eyes are now on his final decision.

Mirza Fakhrul the strongest name
According to party sources and political circles, BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir's name appears to be the most prominent at the moment.

His ability to maintain party leadership through long political struggles and movements, keep leaders and activists united, and his role as BNP's primary political face during the anti-government movement have placed him ahead as a potential candidate, observers believe.

His clean image, refined political conduct, and long-standing political ties with the party's top leadership are also among his strengths. He took over as acting secretary general in 2011 and was elected secretary general at the 2016 council.

Another reason his name is in the spotlight is the perceived need for an experienced and trusted figure to occupy a constitutional position outside the government's operational framework, political circles say.

Dr Khondokar Mosharraf Hossain, a senior party leader, is also an important name in the discussions. A long-time member of BNP's Standing Committee, he is known as a geologist, teacher and writer alongside his political career.

After joining BNP in 1979 at Ziaur Rahman's invitation, he has served as an MP and minister in his long political career. His presence alongside the leadership during the party's difficult times has earned him acceptance within the party.

His role in shaping international public opinion during the Liberation War and his active participation in the country's politics since are important aspects of his political identity.

However, his age and health condition could be factors in assessing his prospects, according to political sources.

Another name in the discussion is Dr Abdul Moeen Khan. The senior BNP leader is also known in academic circles alongside politics.

He has teaching experience at Dhaka University and higher education abroad. He has also played a significant role in maintaining contacts with foreign diplomats and the international community during various times for BNP.

His relatively measured political statements, personal image and international connections are why his name is being considered for the constitutional post, according to sources.

Among the four, Major (retd.) Hafiz Uddin Ahmed Bir Bikram holds special significance as he is currently serving as Acting President.

A recipient of the Bir Bikram gallantry award for his role in the Liberation War, he entered politics after his military career, became a BNP MP multiple times and also served as a minister. He is currently serving as Speaker of Parliament and Acting President.

This constitutional experience places him in a unique position among the potential candidates. Whether he will ultimately be made the permanent president depends on BNP's political decision.

11-party alliance names Oli Ahmed
In contrast to BNP's four possible names, the Jamaat-led 11-party alliance has fielded a direct candidate. After the alliance meeting on Sunday, LDP Chairman Colonel (retd.) Oli Ahmed Bir Bikram was announced as the presidential candidate.

National Citizen Party (NCP) Convener Nahid Islam made the announcement after the meeting.

Oli Ahmed, who also holds the Bir Bikram title, has long military and political experience. He is currently the chairman of LDP. He was also politically active with the Jamaat-led 11-party alliance in the 2026 national election.

The presidential election is therefore no longer confined to discussions within the ruling party. With the opposition alliance fielding a candidate, it could take the shape of a political contest.

BNP collects two nomination forms
BNP has already collected two nomination forms from the Election Commission. The party said the forms are for a single candidate, but two were collected as a backup in case of any errors—meaning collecting two forms does not necessarily indicate two candidates. Rather, it allows the party to submit two sets of nomination papers for the same candidate.

With the party's decision-making authority given to Tarique Rahman, discussions are currently centring around the four names. However, BNP has not officially announced any name yet.

It is worth noting that the presidential election is not like other elections. The president is not elected by direct popular vote, but by MPs.

Given BNP's single-party majority in the current parliament, the party's candidate is naturally more likely to win. The question of who BNP's candidate will be therefore carries significant political weight.

If there are multiple candidates, MPs will vote. Given BNP's parliamentary majority, the party's victory is almost certain.

However, if multiple candidates participate, it would be a significant event in the political history of Bangladesh's presidential elections, as most presidential elections since 1991 have seen the ruling party's candidate elected unopposed.

All eyes on Tarique Rahman's decision
The presidential election now stands on three questions: who BNP's candidate will be, whether Oli Ahmed of the 11-party alliance will stay in the race, and whether there will truly be a voting contest after a long time.

Each of the four potential BNP names has distinct strengths. Mirza Fakhrul brings long movement leadership and a clean image; Khondokar Mosharraf offers seniority and political experience; Moeen Khan has academic and international recognition; and Hafiz Uddin has recent constitutional experience as Speaker and Acting President.

Meanwhile, media speculation suggests that the party chairman and prime minister has already decided to nominate Mirza Fakhrul, though no official announcement has been made yet.

Ultimately, it remains to be seen which political and constitutional equation Tarique Rahman will prioritise in making his final choice.